What to do while AI keeps getting smarter
A framework for human value
Consider the possibility that super intelligent AI (AGI) is not only technically feasible but coming in a matter of decades. And, why not, let’s imagine that when it arrives, it will be not only intelligent, but general: combining human-like reasoning with superhuman speed, perfect recall, and arbitrary scalability.
AI this “powerful” will probably be able to achieve superhuman performance in almost all intellectual labor, and by extension, physical labor (for example, through deploying robotics).
It’s not hard to imagine, then, how the economic value of your labor, if unadapted, will slowly trend towards zero over the next decade, and that the idea of employment itself will undergo a deep transformation.
Not withstanding societal safety nets like UBI, how should the individual best navigate this transition?
Labor Strategy
Let’s try to assume, first, that you cannot compete with AGI. Fighting furiously and valiantly against this thought are our pride, ego and the denialism that our specific knowledge, skillset and your societal positioning puts us above this danger.
Then, the most crucial question to ask yourself is how can you position yourself to avoid competition with AGI?
I argue that you must reorient yourself towards domains where being human is the value proposition.
By this, I mean roles where the work is inseparable from human values, empathy, or existential questions. This doesn’t have to be an entirely different line of work than what you have currently built your life on top of, nor does it have to be stereotypically “people-roles” like a therapist or a manager.
A software engineer, for example, can start by adapting to a new paradigm of coding where they collaborate with LLMs to design and implement systems. In doing so, they survive the initial displacement of engineers who weren’t able to adapt and became competitively obsolete as a result. Eventually, they might evolve into an operator of AGI in a broader sense that asserts control over AGI's objectives and decision-making processes.
Assets will evolve
Curation becomes sacred when creation becomes commoditized. The rise of NFTs illustrated this phenomenon extremely vividly in 2021.
Physical assets may lose value if AGI-driven abundance renders material scarcity obsolete. Intellectual property could collapse if AGI generates infinite content, inventions, and solutions on demand.
The forms of asset that endure are social assets. These are assets derived from trust, influence, and relationships within human networks, such as personal brands, platforms, and followings. These can also be the ownership / ability to produce scarce, non-fungible human creations—like art, heirlooms, and unique experiences—that retain value in a world of AI-generated abundance.
We will evolve
For the individual heading into this world, there are many forms of tacit knowledge I can think of that will be crucial for successfully navigating the change:
Embracing an attitude of lifelong learning with a focus on adaptability and interdisciplinary knowledge will help you to ride the wave of change rather than fall under it.
Uniquely human skills like emotional intelligence, ability to connect/communicate/collaborate with others, leadership, humor, and storytelling could become increasingly important as the focus of society increasingly accumulates towards the top of Maslow’s hierarchy.
I think it’s likely that in one way or another, we will all become leaders of AI in our personal and professional lives. You might consider the current paradigm of prompt engineering as a primitive form of this AI leadership, in which humans act as operators that direct the flow of algorithmic intelligence. If so, then the ability to think and write clearly, as well as communicate effectively will become even more important.
Risk mitigation
Consider Pascal’s wager, a 17th century philosophical argument that advocates for a rational person living in accordance with the existence of God because of the overwhelming risk asymmetry: if God doesn’t exist they incur only finite losses but if God does exist they incur either infinite loss or derive infinite gain.
Now consider the modern version with our hypothetical machine god. Even if you don’t believe that AGI is possible, or don’t agree with the current timelines and think it is much farther away, it might still be worth mitigating your future risk by taking some proaction now.
I believe the outcomes for individuals at the end of the decade will largely be defined by how they positioned themselves towards the start of it, so look bravely ahead, stay curious and diversify yourself.
Maintain flexibility in skills and roles, don’t put your eggs in one basket
Invest in relationships, communities, and other social assets
Develop communication and leadership skills
Stay informed about AI developments and try to avoid competing with AI, seek instead to work with it